Editors at the Southern Voice and Washington Blade have struck up a bet as to how much money Brokeback Mountain will make. Matt Hennie of Southern Voice says the movie will perform well under hopes due to the ho-hum attitude of straight people; Kevin Naff of Washington Blade has said the Golden Globe nominations and impending Oscar nominations will balloon the film's final box office numbers. They have picked $75 million as the measuring stick as to who is right.
Lots of people are expecting MONSTER numbers out of Brokeback Mountain because of the incredible per-theater average ($109,485) in its first weekend. A number that the biggest of movies hope for is $20,000. But, that BBM number is a bit of a lie. It opened in only five theaters; most movies with the marketing and press exposure that BBM has gotten open in over 3,000 theaters. The way over-inflated the BBM numbers opening weekend.
I don't know if people will stay away because it's a gay movie or if they'll stay away because it's too long and slow. The market is flooded now with quality films that don't have two guys kissing, which have a strong storyline or which have $200 million of explosions.
A good comparison for how this movie will do is The English Patient. Before it won the Best Picture Oscar, it had made $63 million; after it won, it made another $15 million. If Naff is going to win his bet, BBM is going to need to win the Best Picture Oscar; and even then, it will be a tough mountain to climb.
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Posted by: celina | January 28, 2013 at 12:13 PM
Well, looks like you were wrong. Brokeback made $4 million last weekend in a crowded field that included four big new movies. By Wednesday, it was almost at a $68 million cumulative, just $7 million away from the magic $75 million mark. With three more weekends, incluind a holiday weekend, to go before OScar night, the movie should reach $75 million by March 5 as long as it averages only $2.4 million for each week until then.
Posted by: Mark | February 16, 2006 at 03:42 PM